SHV
iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-08-19
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for SHV (iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -0.3% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -0.5%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 1.4%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 1.3%. The strategy executed 27 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Strategy Model 4 Models Available
Compare quantitative moving average overlays for SHV:
Excess Return MMA Active Model
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Trading Horizon
Select risk profile & execution style for SHV:
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active Horizon
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
🛡️ SHV Drawdown Shield & Downside Protection
Why Drawdown Dictates Longevity →Peak Drawdown Defense
-0.3% (vs -0.5% B&H)
+0.2% shallower drawdown
Drawdown Shield
0.2% Cut
Protected capital vs -0.5% B&H
Capital Sheltered from Risk
46.4% of Time
Earning Treasury yield during downturns
* Drawdown Shield demonstrates how systematic trend-following bounded historical drawdowns and protected principal capital compared to passive Buy & Hold.
📊 SHV Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| Max Drawdown | -0.03% | -0.03% | -0.05% | -0.37% | -0.08% | -0.45% | -0.26% | -0.45% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 19.43 | 18.43 | 14.74 | 11.90 | 10.37 | 8.23 | 6.06 | 4.93 |
| Sortino Ratio | 33.05 | 46.68 | 25.28 | 17.88 | 16.49 | 13.87 | 7.34 | 7.52 |
| CAGR | 3.66% | 3.78% | 3.67% | 3.48% | 2.43% | 2.29% | 1.39% | 1.34% |
| % Time Invested | 91.3% | 100.0% | 73.3% | 100.0% | 63.1% | 100.0% | 53.6% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
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Loading Top Diversifiers for SHV... Top Diversifiers for SHV
Explore Correlation Across Horizons →Top 5 non-correlated asset sleeves evaluated on 1Y daily percentage returns (Pearson r). Compare them side-by-side in Compare Studio to analyze portfolio diversification.
| Diversifier Asset | Category | 1Y Correlation (r) | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loading top diversifier assets... | |||
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Subscribe to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-04-14 | 2026-05-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.42% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-06-27 | 2026-04-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $105.63 | $108.90 | 3.04% | Signal | |
| 2025-08-21 | 2025-09-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-06-13 | 2025-08-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $100.69 | $106.29 | 5.51% | Signal | |
| 2025-06-04 | 2025-06-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.28% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-05-09 | 2025-06-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $100.22 | $105.32 | 5.04% | Signal | |
| 2024-05-21 | 2024-06-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-12-02 | 2024-05-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $93.43 | $100.37 | 7.37% | Signal | |
| 2024-04-17 | 2024-05-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-12-02 | 2024-04-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $93.43 | $99.88 | 6.85% | Signal | |
| 2021-12-21 | 2022-12-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.74% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-01-28 | 2022-12-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.77% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-09-09 | 2022-12-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.81% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-09-07 | 2021-12-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $89.51 | $92.89 | 3.71% | Signal | |
| 2018-09-07 | 2021-01-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $89.51 | $92.97 | 3.81% | Signal | |
| 2018-09-07 | 2020-09-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $89.51 | $92.98 | 3.82% | Signal | |
| 2016-12-22 | 2018-09-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-11-22 | 2018-09-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.25% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-03-12 | 2018-09-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.57% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-06-27 | 2016-12-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.84 | $88.01 | 0.14% | Signal | |
| 2016-04-04 | 2016-11-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.75 | $87.93 | 0.16% | Signal | |
| 2015-11-16 | 2016-06-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-08-20 | 2016-04-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-09-23 | 2015-11-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.67 | $87.62 | -0.10% | Signal | |
| 2015-08-12 | 2015-09-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-04-15 | 2015-08-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.65 | $87.63 | -0.07% | Signal | |
| 2015-07-07 | 2015-08-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.66 | $87.64 | -0.07% | Signal | |
| 2014-11-13 | 2015-07-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-08-06 | 2015-04-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-02-25 | 2015-03-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.64 | $87.63 | -0.06% | Signal | |
| 2014-12-23 | 2015-02-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-12-03 | 2014-12-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.63 | $87.61 | -0.08% | Signal | |
| 2012-06-05 | 2014-12-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-08-11 | 2014-11-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.64 | $87.64 | -0.05% | Signal | |
| 2013-10-16 | 2014-08-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-05-08 | 2014-08-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.63 | $87.63 | -0.05% | Signal | |
| 2011-12-21 | 2014-05-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-09-18 | 2013-10-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.63 | $87.59 | -0.10% | Signal | |
| 2012-02-17 | 2013-09-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-04-14 | 2012-06-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.57 | $87.59 | -0.04% | Signal | |
| 2011-05-03 | 2012-02-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.59 | $87.57 | -0.07% | Signal | |
| 2011-04-26 | 2011-12-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.57 | $87.59 | -0.03% | Signal | |
| 2010-06-23 | 2011-05-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-11-26 | 2011-04-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-01-27 | 2011-04-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-01-06 | 2011-01-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.14 | $87.53 | 0.39% | Signal | |
| 2010-09-09 | 2010-11-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.49 | $87.52 | -0.02% | Signal | |
| 2010-04-16 | 2010-09-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-01-06 | 2010-06-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.14 | $87.46 | 0.32% | Signal | |
| 2009-06-18 | 2010-04-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.34 | $87.43 | 0.06% | Signal | |
| 2009-05-27 | 2009-06-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-01-06 | 2009-05-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.14 | $87.32 | 0.16% | Signal | |
| 2009-01-02 | 2009-01-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-01-02 | 2009-01-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-01-02 | 2009-01-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |