SHV
iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-15
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for SHV (iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -0.3% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -0.5%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 1.4%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 1.3%. The strategy executed 27 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
SHV Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 3.75% | 3.85% | 3.60% | 3.40% | 2.40% | 2.26% | 1.37% | 1.33% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 18.31 | 17.69 | 14.41 | 11.63 | 10.23 | 8.11 | 6.01 | 4.88 |
| Max Drawdown | -0.03% | -0.03% | -0.05% | -0.38% | -0.08% | -0.45% | -0.26% | -0.45% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 81.0% | 100.0% | 73.4% | 100.0% | 68.6% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 14 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Premium to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-04-14 | 2026-05-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.42% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-06-27 | 2026-04-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $105.96 | $109.24 | 3.04% | Signal | |
| 2025-08-21 | 2025-09-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-06-13 | 2025-08-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $101.00 | $106.62 | 5.51% | Signal | |
| 2025-06-04 | 2025-06-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.28% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-05-09 | 2025-06-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $100.53 | $105.65 | 5.04% | Signal | |
| 2024-05-21 | 2024-06-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-12-02 | 2024-05-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $93.72 | $100.68 | 7.37% | Signal | |
| 2024-04-17 | 2024-05-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-12-02 | 2024-04-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $93.72 | $100.19 | 6.85% | Signal | |
| 2021-12-21 | 2022-12-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.74% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-01-28 | 2022-12-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.77% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-09-09 | 2022-12-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.81% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-09-07 | 2021-12-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $89.79 | $93.17 | 3.71% | Signal | |
| 2018-09-07 | 2021-01-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $89.79 | $93.26 | 3.81% | Signal | |
| 2018-09-07 | 2020-09-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $89.79 | $93.26 | 3.82% | Signal | |
| 2016-12-22 | 2018-09-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-11-22 | 2018-09-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.25% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-03-12 | 2018-09-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.57% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-06-27 | 2016-12-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.11 | $88.28 | 0.14% | Signal | |
| 2016-04-04 | 2016-11-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.02 | $88.20 | 0.16% | Signal | |
| 2015-11-16 | 2016-06-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-08-20 | 2016-04-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-09-23 | 2015-11-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.94 | $87.90 | -0.10% | Signal | |
| 2015-08-12 | 2015-09-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-04-15 | 2015-08-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.92 | $87.91 | -0.07% | Signal | |
| 2015-07-07 | 2015-08-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.93 | $87.91 | -0.07% | Signal | |
| 2014-11-13 | 2015-07-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-08-06 | 2015-04-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-02-25 | 2015-03-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.91 | $87.91 | -0.06% | Signal | |
| 2014-12-23 | 2015-02-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-12-03 | 2014-12-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.91 | $87.88 | -0.08% | Signal | |
| 2012-06-05 | 2014-12-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-08-11 | 2014-11-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.91 | $87.91 | -0.05% | Signal | |
| 2013-10-16 | 2014-08-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-05-08 | 2014-08-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.91 | $87.91 | -0.05% | Signal | |
| 2011-12-21 | 2014-05-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-09-18 | 2013-10-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.90 | $87.86 | -0.10% | Signal | |
| 2012-02-17 | 2013-09-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-04-14 | 2012-06-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.85 | $87.86 | -0.04% | Signal | |
| 2011-05-03 | 2012-02-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.86 | $87.84 | -0.07% | Signal | |
| 2011-04-26 | 2011-12-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.84 | $87.86 | -0.03% | Signal | |
| 2010-06-23 | 2011-05-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-11-26 | 2011-04-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-01-27 | 2011-04-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-01-06 | 2011-01-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.41 | $87.80 | 0.39% | Signal | |
| 2010-09-09 | 2010-11-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.76 | $87.79 | -0.02% | Signal | |
| 2010-04-16 | 2010-09-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-01-06 | 2010-06-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.41 | $87.73 | 0.32% | Signal | |
| 2009-06-18 | 2010-04-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.61 | $87.70 | 0.06% | Signal | |
| 2009-05-27 | 2009-06-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-01-06 | 2009-05-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.41 | $87.59 | 0.16% | Signal | |
| 2009-01-02 | 2009-01-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-01-02 | 2009-01-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-01-02 | 2009-01-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |