SHV iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-05-31
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for SHV (iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -0.2% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -0.5%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 1.4%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 1.3%. The strategy executed 26 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
SHV Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 3.90% | 3.93% | 3.56% | 3.32% | 2.40% | 2.22% | 1.41% | 1.31% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 20.66 | 18.89 | 14.40 | 11.30 | 10.34 | 7.97 | 6.20 | 4.82 |
| Max Drawdown | -0.01% | -0.01% | -0.05% | -0.40% | -0.06% | -0.45% | -0.22% | -0.45% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 81.0% | 100.0% | 73.4% | 100.0% | 68.4% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $110.32 | $110.38 | 0.05% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-09-19 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $107.68 | $110.38 | 2.51% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2022-12-02 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $94.27 | $110.38 | 17.09% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-04-14 | 2026-05-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.42% | Interest Income |
| 2025-06-27 | 2026-04-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $106.58 | $109.88 | 3.10% | Signal |
| 2025-08-21 | 2025-09-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income |
| 2024-06-13 | 2025-08-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $101.59 | $107.25 | 5.57% | Signal |
| 2025-06-04 | 2025-06-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.28% | Interest Income |
| 2024-05-09 | 2025-06-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $101.12 | $106.27 | 5.09% | Signal |
| 2024-05-21 | 2024-06-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2024-05-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $94.27 | $101.27 | 7.42% | Signal |
| 2024-04-17 | 2024-05-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2024-04-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $94.27 | $100.78 | 6.91% | Signal |
| 2021-12-21 | 2022-12-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.74% | Interest Income |
| 2021-01-28 | 2022-12-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.77% | Interest Income |
| 2020-09-09 | 2022-12-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.81% | Interest Income |
| 2018-09-07 | 2021-12-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $90.32 | $93.72 | 3.77% | Signal |
| 2018-09-07 | 2021-01-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $90.32 | $93.81 | 3.86% | Signal |
| 2018-09-07 | 2020-09-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $90.32 | $93.82 | 3.87% | Signal |
| 2016-12-22 | 2018-09-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.21% | Interest Income |
| 2016-11-22 | 2018-09-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.25% | Interest Income |
| 2015-03-12 | 2018-09-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.57% | Interest Income |
| 2016-06-27 | 2016-12-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.63 | $88.80 | 0.19% | Signal |
| 2016-04-04 | 2016-11-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.54 | $88.72 | 0.21% | Signal |
| 2015-11-16 | 2016-06-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2015-08-20 | 2016-04-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-23 | 2015-11-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.46 | $88.42 | -0.05% | Signal |
| 2015-08-12 | 2015-09-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2015-04-15 | 2015-08-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.44 | $88.43 | -0.02% | Signal |
| 2015-07-07 | 2015-08-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.45 | $88.43 | -0.02% | Signal |
| 2014-11-13 | 2015-07-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2014-08-06 | 2015-04-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-02-25 | 2015-03-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.43 | $88.43 | -0.01% | Signal |
| 2014-12-23 | 2015-02-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2014-12-03 | 2014-12-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.43 | $88.40 | -0.03% | Signal |
| 2012-06-05 | 2014-12-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income |
| 2014-08-11 | 2014-11-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.43 | $88.43 | -0.00% | Signal |
| 2013-10-16 | 2014-08-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2014-05-08 | 2014-08-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.43 | $88.43 | 0.00% | Signal |
| 2011-12-21 | 2014-05-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2013-09-18 | 2013-10-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.42 | $88.38 | -0.05% | Signal |
| 2012-02-17 | 2013-09-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income |
| 2011-04-14 | 2012-06-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.36 | $88.38 | 0.01% | Signal |
| 2011-05-03 | 2012-02-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.38 | $88.36 | -0.02% | Signal |
| 2011-04-26 | 2011-12-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.36 | $88.38 | 0.02% | Signal |
| 2010-06-23 | 2011-05-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income |
| 2010-11-26 | 2011-04-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2011-01-27 | 2011-04-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2009-01-06 | 2011-01-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.93 | $88.32 | 0.44% | Signal |
| 2010-09-09 | 2010-11-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.28 | $88.31 | 0.03% | Signal |
| 2010-04-16 | 2010-09-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2009-01-06 | 2010-06-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.93 | $88.25 | 0.37% | Signal |
| 2009-06-18 | 2010-04-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.13 | $88.22 | 0.11% | Signal |
| 2009-05-27 | 2009-06-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2009-01-06 | 2009-05-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.93 | $88.11 | 0.21% | Signal |
| 2009-01-02 | 2009-01-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2009-01-02 | 2009-01-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2009-01-02 | 2009-01-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |