SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P 500 (2x Leveraged S&P 500)
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for SSO (ProShares Ultra S&P 500 (2x Leveraged S&P 500)) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -38.1% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -78.9%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 11.3%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 16.9%. The strategy executed 24 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
SSO Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 5.72% | 29.01% | 7.57% | 16.44% | 11.61% | 22.82% | 11.31% | 16.87% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.24 | 1.01 | 0.32 | 0.45 | 0.49 | 0.57 | 0.48 | 0.40 |
| Max Drawdown | -17.63% | -18.16% | -36.52% | -46.73% | -36.52% | -59.34% | -38.07% | -78.93% |
| % Time Invested | 93.7% | 100.0% | 71.9% | 100.0% | 75.2% | 100.0% | 70.6% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-03-30 | 2026-04-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-05-01 | 2026-03-30 | Completed | 100% | $40.15 | $50.20 | 24.98% | Stop | |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.29% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-01 | 2025-04-07 | Completed | 100% | $40.71 | $31.08 | -23.70% | Stop | |
| 2025-03-10 | 2025-04-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-08-28 | 2025-03-10 | Completed | 100% | $42.55 | $42.23 | -0.80% | Stop | |
| 2024-08-06 | 2024-08-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-10-20 | 2024-08-06 | Completed | 100% | $25.76 | $36.61 | 42.04% | Stop | |
| 2023-09-28 | 2023-10-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-03-06 | 2023-09-28 | Completed | 100% | $24.01 | $25.86 | 7.66% | Stop | |
| 2022-02-25 | 2023-03-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.84% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-15 | 2022-02-25 | Completed | 100% | $30.89 | $28.88 | -6.54% | Stop | |
| 2022-01-24 | 2022-02-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-11-23 | 2022-01-24 | Completed | 100% | $20.13 | $29.37 | 45.85% | Stop | |
| 2020-10-30 | 2020-11-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-10-13 | 2020-10-30 | Completed | 100% | $19.68 | $17.04 | -13.46% | Stop | |
| 2020-09-21 | 2020-10-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-08-04 | 2020-09-21 | Completed | 100% | $17.08 | $16.89 | -1.15% | Stop | |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-08-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-19 | 2020-03-24 | Completed | 100% | $9.32 | $9.06 | -2.85% | Stop | |
| 2020-02-26 | 2020-03-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-04-08 | 2020-02-26 | Completed | 100% | $14.72 | $17.22 | 16.90% | Stop | |
| 2018-12-06 | 2019-04-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.79% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-11-15 | 2018-12-06 | Completed | 100% | $12.93 | $12.59 | -2.69% | Signal | |
| 2018-10-24 | 2018-11-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-04-25 | 2018-10-24 | Completed | 100% | $12.50 | $13.46 | 7.62% | Stop | |
| 2018-04-03 | 2018-04-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-03-01 | 2018-04-03 | Completed | 100% | $13.36 | $12.17 | -8.99% | Stop | |
| 2018-02-06 | 2018-03-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-04-26 | 2018-02-06 | Completed | 100% | $7.80 | $12.31 | 57.63% | Stop | |
| 2016-01-11 | 2016-04-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-12-24 | 2016-01-11 | Completed | 100% | $7.60 | $6.68 | -12.09% | Signal | |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-12-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-11-07 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 100% | $7.33 | $6.82 | -6.99% | Stop | |
| 2014-10-16 | 2014-11-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-12-11 | 2014-10-16 | Completed | 100% | $3.51 | $5.96 | 69.55% | Stop | |
| 2012-11-16 | 2012-12-11 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-06-12 | 2012-11-16 | Completed | 100% | $2.96 | $3.17 | 7.23% | Stop | |
| 2012-05-18 | 2012-06-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-02-07 | 2012-05-18 | Completed | 100% | $3.07 | $2.95 | -4.01% | Stop | |
| 2011-08-03 | 2012-02-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-10-26 | 2011-08-03 | Completed | 100% | $2.43 | $2.77 | 13.94% | Stop | |
| 2010-07-01 | 2010-10-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2010-07-01 | Completed | 100% | $2.04 | $1.86 | -9.15% | Stop | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-03-03 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 100% | $2.22 | $2.23 | 0.42% | Stop | |
| 2010-02-08 | 2010-03-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-07-09 | 2010-02-08 | Completed | 100% | $1.38 | $2.00 | 44.50% | Stop | |
| 2008-06-13 | 2009-07-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.64% | Interest Income | |