BCD

abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Longer Dated Strategy K-1 Free ETF

TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY

2026-09-09

Executive Summary

The quantitative backtest for BCD (abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Longer Dated Strategy K-1 Free ETF) using the Excess Return MMA CA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -10.2% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -24.2%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 14.3%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 12.7%. The strategy executed 38 total trades.

* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.

📊 Strategy Model 4 Models Available

Compare quantitative moving average overlays for BCD:

Excess Return MMA

Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.

Excess Return MMA CA Active Model

Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.

Excess Return SMA

Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.

Moving Average (50/200)

Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.

🎯 Trading Horizon

Select risk profile & execution style for BCD:

🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active Horizon

Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.

⚔️ Tactical Trading

Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.

🛡️ BCD Drawdown Shield & Downside Protection

Why Drawdown Dictates Longevity →

Peak Drawdown Defense

-10.2% (vs -24.2% B&H)

+14.0% shallower drawdown

Downside Efficiency

1.37 Sortino

+0.33 vs 1.04 B&H

Capital Sheltered from Risk

41.5% of Time

Earning Treasury yield during downturns

* Drawdown Shield demonstrates how systematic trend-following bounded historical drawdowns and protected principal capital compared to passive Buy & Hold.

📊 BCD Quality Metrics & KPI Summary

Metric	1Y		5Y		Full
	Strategy	B&H	Strategy	B&H	Strategy	B&H
Max Drawdown	-8.01%	-12.70%	-10.17%	-23.03%	-10.17%	-24.17%
Sharpe Ratio	2.36	2.15	1.08	0.77	1.25	0.81
Sortino Ratio	2.96	2.91	1.20	0.99	1.37	1.04
CAGR	36.94%	36.53%	12.93%	12.51%	14.33%	12.68%
% Time Invested	87.6%	100.0%	60.7%	100.0%	58.5%	100.0%
Trades / Year	3.0	0.0	6.6	0.0	5.2	0.0

Cumulative Growth Performance

Hydrating Performance Trajectory... Loading historical performance data

Figure 1: Cumulative Trajectory Analysis. Logarithmic growth comparison of BCD under the Excess Return MMA CA strategy (Investing) versus Buy & Hold. The strategy produced a 14.3% CAGR with a -10.2% Max Drawdown across 38 trade signals (compared to Buy & Hold's 12.7% CAGR and -24.2% Max Drawdown).

Histogram of monthly return distribution for BCD under Excess Return MMA CA strategy in Investing context, illustrating downside risk mitigation and return skewness. — **Figure 2: Monthly Return Distribution Profile.** Monthly return distribution for **BCD** under **Excess Return MMA CA** (Investing). Visualizes return frequency, volatility clustering, and tail-risk truncation relative to standard buy-and-hold returns.

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Top Diversifiers for BCD

Explore Correlation Across Horizons →

Top 5 non-correlated asset sleeves evaluated on 1Y daily percentage returns (Pearson r). Compare them side-by-side in Compare Studio to analyze portfolio diversification.

Diversifier Asset	Category	1Y Correlation (r)	Action
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Trade History

This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.

Entry Date	Exit Date	Type	Allocation	Entry Price	Exit Price	Net Return %	Exit Reason
🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Subscribe to Unlock
2026-06-08	2026-07-01	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.24%	Interest Income
2026-06-08	2026-07-01	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.24%	Interest Income
2025-08-29	2026-06-24	Completed	33.33%	$28.51	$34.01	19.23%	Stop
2026-02-26	2026-06-08	Completed	33.33%	$33.65	$36.35	7.97%	Stop
2026-02-26	2026-06-08	Completed	33.33%	$33.65	$36.35	7.97%	Stop
2026-02-03	2026-02-26	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.26%	Interest Income
2026-02-03	2026-02-26	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.26%	Interest Income
2025-04-30	2026-02-03	Completed	33.33%	$27.75	$32.92	18.55%	Stop
2025-04-30	2026-02-03	Completed	33.33%	$27.75	$32.92	18.55%	Stop
2025-06-26	2025-08-29	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	0.96%	Interest Income
2024-12-05	2025-06-26	Completed	33.33%	$26.50	$28.43	7.22%	Signal
2025-04-07	2025-04-30	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.02	1.64%	Interest Income
2025-04-07	2025-04-30	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.02	1.64%	Interest Income
2025-01-16	2025-04-07	Completed	33.33%	$28.00	$27.11	-3.22%	Stop
2025-01-16	2025-04-07	Completed	33.33%	$28.00	$27.11	-3.22%	Stop
2024-11-18	2025-01-16	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	0.96%	Interest Income
2024-10-02	2025-01-16	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.02	1.75%	Interest Income
2024-10-02	2024-12-05	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	1.06%	Interest Income
2024-08-20	2024-11-18	Completed	33.33%	$25.83	$26.05	0.81%	Signal
2024-08-06	2024-10-01	Interest (SHV)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	0.86%	Interest Income
2024-08-02	2024-10-01	Interest (SHV)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	0.96%	Interest Income
2024-08-02	2024-08-20	Interest (SHV)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.27%	Interest Income
2024-04-08	2024-08-06	Completed	33.33%	$26.91	$25.00	-7.12%	Stop
2024-07-30	2024-08-01	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.05%	Interest Income
2024-07-29	2024-08-01	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.07%	Interest Income
2024-04-08	2024-07-30	Completed	33.33%	$26.91	$25.42	-5.59%	Stop
2024-04-08	2024-07-29	Completed	33.33%	$26.91	$25.65	-4.70%	Stop
2023-12-05	2024-04-08	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.03	2.53%	Interest Income
2023-08-25	2024-04-08	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.04	4.25%	Interest Income
2023-06-02	2024-04-08	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.06	5.81%	Interest Income
2023-09-08	2023-12-05	Completed	33.33%	$26.43	$25.44	-3.80%	Signal
2023-06-02	2023-09-08	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.02	1.78%	Interest Income
2023-05-26	2023-08-25	Completed	33.33%	$24.75	$26.20	5.84%	Signal
2023-05-12	2023-06-01	Interest (SHV)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.23%	Interest Income
2023-05-12	2023-06-01	Interest (SHV)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.23%	Interest Income
2023-05-04	2023-05-26	Interest (SHV)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.25%	Interest Income
2023-04-19	2023-05-12	Completed	33.33%	$26.46	$25.11	-5.17%	Stop
2023-04-19	2023-05-12	Completed	33.33%	$26.46	$25.11	-5.17%	Stop
2023-04-11	2023-05-04	Completed	33.33%	$26.31	$25.18	-4.36%	Stop
2023-04-04	2023-04-19	Interest (SHV)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.17%	Interest Income
2023-04-04	2023-04-19	Interest (SHV)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.17%	Interest Income
2023-04-04	2023-04-11	Interest (SHV)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.08%	Interest Income
2023-03-17	2023-04-03	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	1.15%	Interest Income
2022-12-02	2023-04-03	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.02	1.87%	Interest Income
2022-12-02	2023-04-03	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.02	1.87%	Interest Income
2023-03-02	2023-03-17	Completed	33.33%	$26.47	$25.27	-4.57%	Stop
2023-02-07	2023-03-02	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	0.54%	Interest Income
2022-09-29	2023-02-07	Completed	33.33%	$26.27	$26.41	0.47%	Stop
2022-11-29	2022-12-01	Interest (BIL)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.05%	Interest Income
2022-10-04	2022-12-01	Interest (BIL)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	0.52%	Interest Income
2022-09-29	2022-11-29	Completed	33.33%	$26.27	$27.19	3.46%	Signal
2022-09-02	2022-10-03	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	-0.05%	Interest Income
2022-09-07	2022-09-29	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	-0.02%	Interest Income
2022-09-07	2022-09-29	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	-0.02%	Interest Income
2022-07-11	2022-09-07	Completed	33.33%	$26.59	$27.04	1.67%	Stop
2022-07-11	2022-09-07	Completed	33.33%	$26.59	$27.04	1.67%	Stop
2022-08-23	2022-09-01	Interest (BIL)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.08%	Interest Income
2022-07-19	2022-08-23	Completed	33.33%	$26.56	$28.83	8.49%	Signal
2022-06-24	2022-07-19	Interest (BIL)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.00%	Interest Income
2022-06-15	2022-07-11	Interest (BIL)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.06%	Interest Income
2022-06-15	2022-07-11	Interest (BIL)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.06%	Interest Income
2022-04-08	2022-06-24	Completed	33.33%	$29.33	$27.70	-5.59%	Stop
2022-05-18	2022-06-15	Completed	33.33%	$30.53	$29.93	-2.01%	Stop
2022-05-18	2022-06-15	Completed	33.33%	$30.53	$29.93	-2.01%	Stop
2022-04-26	2022-05-18	Interest (BIL)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.01%	Interest Income
2022-04-26	2022-05-18	Interest (BIL)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.01%	Interest Income
2022-04-01	2022-04-26	Completed	33.33%	$28.45	$29.76	4.56%	Stop
2022-04-01	2022-04-26	Completed	33.33%	$28.45	$29.76	4.56%	Stop
2022-03-17	2022-04-08	Interest (BIL)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	-0.00%	Interest Income
2022-03-10	2022-04-01	Interest (BIL)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.01%	Interest Income
2022-03-10	2022-04-01	Interest (BIL)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.01%	Interest Income
2020-07-09	2022-03-17	Completed	33.33%	$14.61	$27.87	90.66%	Stop
2021-12-23	2022-03-10	Completed	33.33%	$23.07	$28.80	24.78%	Stop
2021-12-23	2022-03-10	Completed	33.33%	$23.07	$28.80	24.78%	Stop
2021-12-01	2021-12-23	Interest (BIL)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	-0.01%	Interest Income
2021-12-01	2021-12-23	Interest (BIL)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	-0.01%	Interest Income
2021-09-15	2021-12-01	Completed	33.33%	$22.40	$22.44	0.10%	Stop
2021-09-15	2021-12-01	Completed	33.33%	$22.40	$22.44	0.10%	Stop
2021-09-02	2021-09-15	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.04%	Interest Income
2021-09-02	2021-09-15	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.04%	Interest Income
2021-08-23	2021-09-01	Interest (SHV)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	-0.01%	Interest Income
2021-08-23	2021-09-01	Interest (SHV)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	-0.01%	Interest Income
2020-07-09	2021-08-23	Completed	33.33%	$14.61	$20.88	42.89%	Stop
2020-07-09	2021-08-23	Completed	33.33%	$14.61	$20.88	42.89%	Stop
2020-06-02	2020-07-09	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	0.66%	Interest Income
2020-06-02	2020-07-09	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	0.66%	Interest Income
2020-06-02	2020-07-09	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	0.66%	Interest Income
2020-03-03	2020-06-01	Interest (SHV)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.39%	Interest Income
2020-03-03	2020-06-01	Interest (SHV)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.39%	Interest Income
2020-03-03	2020-06-01	Interest (SHV)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.39%	Interest Income
2020-03-02	2020-03-02	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.05%	Interest Income
2019-11-22	2020-03-02	Completed	33.33%	$16.01	$15.08	-5.87%	Stop
2019-04-30	2020-03-02	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.02	2.28%	Interest Income
2019-04-30	2020-03-02	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.02	2.28%	Interest Income
2019-06-21	2019-11-22	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	1.36%	Interest Income
2019-05-02	2019-06-21	Completed	33.33%	$16.16	$16.02	-0.92%	Signal
2019-04-30	2019-05-02	Interest (FLOT)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.03%	Interest Income

Next Steps: Portfolio Integration & Comparative Analysis

Single-ticker trend following is designed to truncate tail risk inside a broader portfolio. View where BCD ranks across 40+ tracked assets, evaluate correlation against non-correlated diversifiers, or model it inside a custom all-weather asset mix.

📊 View Full 40-Asset Backtest Matrix → 🛠️ Build Custom Portfolio with BCD → ⚖️ Compare BCD vs Non-Correlated Assets →

BCD