BCD
abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Longer Dated Strategy K-1 Free ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for BCD (abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Longer Dated Strategy K-1 Free ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -10.2% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -24.2%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 13.1%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 11.9%. The strategy executed 37 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
BCD Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | Full History | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 29.22% | 26.68% | 10.46% | 10.99% | 13.05% | 11.87% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.99 | 1.67 | 0.88 | 0.68 | 1.15 | 0.76 |
| Max Drawdown | -8.02% | -12.70% | -10.15% | -23.03% | -10.15% | -24.17% |
| % Time Invested | 98.0% | 100.0% | 84.1% | 100.0% | 78.1% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 3.0 | 0.0 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 5.1 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-02-03 | 2026-02-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2026-02-03 | 2026-02-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-30 | 2026-02-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $27.75 | $32.92 | 18.55% | Stop | |
| 2025-04-30 | 2026-02-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $27.75 | $32.92 | 18.55% | Stop | |
| 2025-06-26 | 2025-08-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.77% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-12-05 | 2025-06-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.50 | $28.43 | 7.22% | Signal | |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-01-16 | 2025-04-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $28.00 | $27.11 | -3.22% | Stop | |
| 2025-01-16 | 2025-04-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $28.00 | $27.11 | -3.22% | Stop | |
| 2024-11-18 | 2025-01-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.67% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-07-30 | 2025-01-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.19% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-08-06 | 2024-12-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.61% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-08-20 | 2024-11-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $25.83 | $26.05 | 0.81% | Signal | |
| 2024-07-29 | 2024-08-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-04-08 | 2024-08-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.91 | $25.00 | -7.12% | Stop | |
| 2024-04-08 | 2024-07-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.91 | $25.42 | -5.59% | Stop | |
| 2024-04-08 | 2024-07-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.91 | $25.65 | -4.70% | Stop | |
| 2023-12-05 | 2024-04-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.78% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-08-25 | 2024-04-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-05-12 | 2024-04-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 4.91% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-09-08 | 2023-12-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.43 | $25.44 | -3.80% | Signal | |
| 2023-05-12 | 2023-09-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.73% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-05-26 | 2023-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $24.75 | $26.20 | 5.84% | Signal | |
| 2023-05-04 | 2023-05-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-04-19 | 2023-05-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.46 | $25.11 | -5.17% | Stop | |
| 2023-04-19 | 2023-05-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.46 | $25.11 | -5.17% | Stop | |
| 2023-04-11 | 2023-05-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.31 | $25.18 | -4.36% | Stop | |
| 2022-11-29 | 2023-04-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.77% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-08-23 | 2023-04-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.77% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-03-17 | 2023-04-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-03-02 | 2023-03-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.47 | $25.27 | -4.57% | Stop | |
| 2023-02-07 | 2023-03-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-09-29 | 2023-02-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.27 | $26.41 | 0.47% | Stop | |
| 2022-09-29 | 2022-11-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.27 | $27.19 | 3.46% | Signal | |
| 2022-09-07 | 2022-09-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.20% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-09-07 | 2022-09-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.20% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-07-11 | 2022-09-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.59 | $27.04 | 1.67% | Stop | |
| 2022-07-11 | 2022-09-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.59 | $27.04 | 1.67% | Stop | |
| 2022-07-19 | 2022-08-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.56 | $28.83 | 8.49% | Signal | |
| 2022-06-24 | 2022-07-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.13% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-06-15 | 2022-07-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-06-15 | 2022-07-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-04-08 | 2022-06-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $29.33 | $27.70 | -5.59% | Stop | |
| 2022-05-18 | 2022-06-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $30.53 | $29.93 | -2.01% | Stop | |
| 2022-05-18 | 2022-06-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $30.53 | $29.93 | -2.01% | Stop | |
| 2022-04-26 | 2022-05-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-04-26 | 2022-05-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-04-01 | 2022-04-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $28.45 | $29.76 | 4.56% | Stop | |
| 2022-04-01 | 2022-04-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $28.45 | $29.76 | 4.56% | Stop | |
| 2022-03-17 | 2022-04-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-10 | 2022-04-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-10 | 2022-04-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-07-09 | 2022-03-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $14.61 | $27.87 | 90.66% | Stop | |
| 2021-12-23 | 2022-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $23.07 | $28.80 | 24.78% | Stop | |
| 2021-12-23 | 2022-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $23.07 | $28.80 | 24.78% | Stop | |
| 2021-12-01 | 2021-12-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-12-01 | 2021-12-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-09-15 | 2021-12-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.40 | $22.44 | 0.10% | Stop | |
| 2021-09-15 | 2021-12-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.40 | $22.44 | 0.10% | Stop | |
| 2021-08-23 | 2021-09-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-08-23 | 2021-09-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-07-09 | 2021-08-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $14.61 | $20.88 | 42.89% | Stop | |
| 2020-07-09 | 2021-08-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $14.61 | $20.88 | 42.89% | Stop | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-07-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-04-30 | 2020-07-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.62% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-04-30 | 2020-07-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.62% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-11-22 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.01 | $15.08 | -5.87% | Stop | |
| 2019-06-21 | 2019-11-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.81% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-05-02 | 2019-06-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.16 | $16.02 | -0.92% | Signal | |
| 2019-04-30 | 2019-05-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |