BCD
abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Longer Dated Strategy K-1 Free ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for BCD (abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Longer Dated Strategy K-1 Free ETF) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -29.6% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -24.2%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.8%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 11.9%. The strategy executed 8 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
BCD Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | Full History | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 26.68% | 26.68% | 7.28% | 10.99% | 8.82% | 11.87% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.67 | 1.67 | 0.52 | 0.68 | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| Max Drawdown | -12.70% | -12.70% | -29.58% | -23.03% | -29.58% | -24.17% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 72.0% | 100.0% | 67.5% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-01-08 | 2025-02-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-10-15 | 2025-01-08 | Completed | 100% | $26.56 | $27.05 | 1.81% | Signal | |
| 2024-09-10 | 2024-10-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.47% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-04-08 | 2024-09-10 | Completed | 100% | $26.91 | $25.37 | -5.77% | Signal | |
| 2023-12-12 | 2024-04-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.68% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-09-13 | 2023-12-12 | Completed | 100% | $26.44 | $24.65 | -6.81% | Signal | |
| 2023-05-12 | 2023-09-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.79% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-04-19 | 2023-05-12 | Completed | 100% | $26.46 | $25.11 | -5.17% | Stop | |
| 2022-10-10 | 2023-04-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.35% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-07-27 | 2022-10-10 | Completed | 100% | $27.64 | $27.36 | -1.05% | Signal | |
| 2022-07-05 | 2022-07-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-07-09 | 2022-07-05 | Completed | 100% | $14.61 | $26.45 | 80.97% | Stop | |
| 2020-03-09 | 2020-07-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-12-19 | 2020-03-09 | Completed | 100% | $16.52 | $14.31 | -13.42% | Signal | |
| 2019-05-14 | 2019-12-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-05-02 | 2019-05-14 | Completed | 100% | $16.16 | $16.06 | -0.64% | Signal | |
| 2019-04-30 | 2019-05-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |