VUG
Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-28
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for VUG (Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF) using the Excess Return SMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -29.6% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -50.7%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12.8%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 12.6%. The strategy executed 15 total trades.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA Active
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
VUG Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | -4.76% | 10.14% | 8.23% | 11.53% | 17.53% | 17.08% | 12.82% | 12.58% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.30 | 0.55 | 0.43 | 0.49 | 0.92 | 0.73 | 0.75 | 0.57 |
| Max Drawdown | -16.06% | -16.53% | -29.56% | -35.61% | -29.56% | -35.61% | -29.56% | -50.68% |
| % Time Invested | 93.7% | 100.0% | 87.5% | 100.0% | 92.5% | 100.0% | 90.6% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-03-30 | 2026-04-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-24 | 2026-03-30 | Completed | 100% | $60.05 | $70.93 | 18.05% | Stop | |
| 2025-04-01 | 2025-04-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-08-28 | 2025-04-01 | Completed | 100% | $62.13 | $61.23 | -1.51% | Stop | |
| 2024-08-06 | 2024-08-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2024-08-06 | Completed | 100% | $37.16 | $56.77 | 52.69% | Stop | |
| 2022-10-19 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-10-17 | 2022-10-19 | Completed | 100% | $34.85 | $35.38 | 1.48% | Signal | |
| 2022-09-23 | 2022-10-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-05-24 | 2022-09-23 | Completed | 100% | $37.19 | $36.20 | -2.72% | Stop | |
| 2022-05-02 | 2022-05-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-16 | 2022-05-02 | Completed | 100% | $46.17 | $40.70 | -11.88% | Stop | |
| 2022-01-25 | 2022-02-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-24 | 2022-01-25 | Completed | 100% | $23.24 | $44.96 | 93.36% | Stop | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-01-11 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 100% | $22.11 | $28.50 | 28.86% | Stop | |
| 2018-12-18 | 2019-01-11 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-02-12 | 2018-12-18 | Completed | 100% | $14.45 | $21.77 | 50.64% | Stop | |
| 2016-01-21 | 2016-02-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-09-17 | 2016-01-21 | Completed | 100% | $15.96 | $14.79 | -7.40% | Stop | |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-08-31 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 100% | $8.75 | $15.16 | 73.26% | Stop | |
| 2011-08-09 | 2011-08-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2011-08-09 | Completed | 100% | $7.26 | $8.10 | 11.46% | Stop | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-07-22 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 100% | $6.33 | $7.54 | 19.05% | Stop | |
| 2008-09-16 | 2009-07-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-02-14 | 2008-09-16 | Completed | 100% | $8.24 | $7.41 | -10.19% | Stop | |
| 2008-01-23 | 2008-02-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2006-01-25 | 2008-01-23 | Completed | 100% | $7.36 | $7.62 | 3.44% | Stop | |
| 2006-01-23 | 2006-01-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |