BNDX Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-05-31
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for BNDX (Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund ETF) using the Excess Return MMA CA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -5.7% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -16.2%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.5%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 2.0%. The strategy executed 28 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA Active
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
BNDX Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 2.13% | 2.27% | 2.67% | 0.45% | 2.36% | 1.79% | 2.46% | 2.05% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.97 | 0.66 | 1.20 | 0.09 | 0.93 | 0.43 | 0.96 | 0.51 |
| Max Drawdown | -2.43% | -2.93% | -2.43% | -15.86% | -5.74% | -16.23% | -5.74% | -16.23% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 64.0% | 100.0% | 81.4% | 100.0% | 83.1% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $48.52 | $48.33 | -0.40% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-05-04 | Open | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-05-04 | Open | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-04-24 | 2026-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income |
| 2026-03-09 | 2026-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.54% | Interest Income |
| 2024-08-05 | 2026-04-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.08 | $47.97 | 4.09% | Signal |
| 2025-11-12 | 2026-03-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.18 | $48.07 | -0.23% | Signal |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-02-13 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income |
| 2025-11-06 | 2026-01-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.14 | $47.99 | -0.29% | Signal |
| 2025-06-03 | 2025-11-12 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.37% | Interest Income |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.40% | Interest Income |
| 2025-07-02 | 2025-09-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.35 | $47.74 | 0.81% | Signal |
| 2025-06-03 | 2025-07-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.46% | Interest Income |
| 2025-05-09 | 2025-06-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.26% | Interest Income |
| 2025-05-02 | 2025-06-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income |
| 2024-03-18 | 2025-05-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.59 | $47.04 | 5.49% | Signal |
| 2025-01-16 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.01% | Interest Income |
| 2024-08-05 | 2025-01-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.08 | $46.05 | -0.07% | Signal |
| 2024-08-02 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income |
| 2024-08-02 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income |
| 2024-05-14 | 2024-08-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.27% | Interest Income |
| 2023-06-02 | 2024-08-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.08 | 7.87% | Interest Income |
| 2024-01-05 | 2024-05-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.53 | $44.58 | 0.10% | Signal |
| 2023-06-02 | 2024-03-18 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 5.43% | Interest Income |
| 2023-07-06 | 2024-01-05 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.26% | Interest Income |
| 2023-06-15 | 2023-07-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.64 | $42.47 | -0.40% | Signal |
| 2023-06-02 | 2023-06-15 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.28% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-28 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.40% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-03 | 2023-04-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.64 | $42.73 | 0.21% | Signal |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.66% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-02-02 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2022-01-14 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-11-19 | 2022-02-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.65 | $46.68 | -2.04% | Signal |
| 2020-04-14 | 2022-01-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.53 | $47.09 | 1.20% | Signal |
| 2021-11-22 | 2022-01-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2021-08-10 | 2021-11-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.23 | $47.65 | -1.21% | Signal |
| 2021-11-02 | 2021-11-19 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-09-02 | 2021-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2021-08-03 | 2021-09-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2021-08-03 | 2021-08-10 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-05-18 | 2021-08-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2021-05-04 | 2021-08-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-14 | 2021-05-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.53 | $47.02 | 1.06% | Signal |
| 2021-04-05 | 2021-05-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-03-17 | 2021-04-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2020-06-30 | 2021-03-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.51 | $47.35 | -0.35% | Signal |
| 2020-06-02 | 2020-06-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.64% | Interest Income |
| 2020-05-29 | 2020-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-14 | 2020-05-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.53 | $47.20 | 1.44% | Signal |
| 2020-03-20 | 2020-04-14 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-20 | 2020-04-14 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-20 | 2020-04-14 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-03-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.46 | $45.13 | -4.91% | Stop |
| 2019-02-15 | 2020-03-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.50 | $45.13 | 3.76% | Stop |
| 2018-06-28 | 2020-03-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.21 | $45.13 | 6.93% | Stop |
| 2020-03-03 | 2020-03-10 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.31% | Interest Income |
| 2019-12-30 | 2020-03-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.31% | Interest Income |
| 2018-12-11 | 2019-12-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.69 | $46.33 | 8.51% | Signal |
| 2018-12-17 | 2019-02-15 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.43% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-30 | 2018-12-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.48 | $42.72 | 0.55% | Signal |
| 2018-12-04 | 2018-12-11 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-12-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-11-30 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income |
| 2018-10-15 | 2018-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income |
| 2018-10-11 | 2018-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2017-08-18 | 2018-10-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.39 | $42.04 | 1.56% | Signal |
| 2018-05-14 | 2018-10-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.02 | $41.98 | -0.08% | Signal |
| 2017-11-21 | 2018-06-28 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.18% | Interest Income |
| 2018-03-22 | 2018-05-14 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.42% | Interest Income |
| 2017-05-10 | 2018-03-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.95 | $41.97 | 2.49% | Signal |
| 2015-05-29 | 2017-11-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.75 | $41.74 | 7.69% | Signal |
| 2017-05-02 | 2017-08-18 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.51% | Interest Income |
| 2017-05-02 | 2017-05-10 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2017-04-04 | 2017-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2017-04-04 | 2017-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2017-02-21 | 2017-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.13% | Interest Income |
| 2016-12-01 | 2017-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.57% | Interest Income |
| 2015-11-19 | 2017-02-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.04 | $40.55 | 3.86% | Signal |
| 2015-10-13 | 2016-12-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.79 | $40.56 | 4.55% | Signal |
| 2015-11-03 | 2015-11-19 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-25 | 2015-11-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-02 | 2015-10-13 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2015-05-29 | 2015-09-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.75 | $38.68 | -0.18% | Signal |
| 2015-08-04 | 2015-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2015-07-02 | 2015-08-03 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2015-06-23 | 2015-07-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2015-05-29 | 2015-06-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.75 | $38.01 | -1.92% | Signal |
| 2015-05-27 | 2015-05-29 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2015-05-27 | 2015-05-29 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2015-05-27 | 2015-05-29 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |