BNDX
Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-15
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for BNDX (Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -5.9% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -16.2%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.2%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 2.0%. The strategy executed 28 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
BNDX Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 1.83% | 2.21% | 2.44% | 0.17% | 1.96% | 1.55% | 2.25% | 2.01% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.84 | 0.62 | 1.29 | 0.03 | 0.83 | 0.38 | 0.93 | 0.50 |
| Max Drawdown | -2.44% | -2.93% | -2.44% | -15.86% | -5.88% | -16.23% | -5.88% | -16.23% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 64.0% | 100.0% | 81.4% | 100.0% | 83.2% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 14 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Premium to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2024-08-05 | 2026-04-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.87 | $47.74 | 4.04% | Signal | |
| 2025-11-12 | 2026-03-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.96 | $47.85 | -0.28% | Signal | |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-02-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.24% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-11-06 | 2026-01-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.91 | $47.77 | -0.34% | Signal | |
| 2025-05-09 | 2025-11-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.42% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-07-02 | 2025-09-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.13 | $47.51 | 0.76% | Signal | |
| 2025-01-16 | 2025-07-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.95% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-03-18 | 2025-05-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.38 | $46.82 | 5.44% | Signal | |
| 2024-08-05 | 2025-01-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.87 | $45.83 | -0.12% | Signal | |
| 2024-05-14 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.19% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-01-14 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.11 | 10.83% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-01-05 | 2024-05-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.33 | $44.37 | 0.05% | Signal | |
| 2022-02-02 | 2024-03-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.09 | 8.60% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-07-06 | 2024-01-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.75% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-06-15 | 2023-07-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.44 | $42.27 | -0.45% | Signal | |
| 2023-04-28 | 2023-06-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.68% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-04-03 | 2023-04-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.44 | $42.53 | 0.16% | Signal | |
| 2021-11-22 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-11-19 | 2022-02-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.43 | $46.47 | -2.09% | Signal | |
| 2020-04-14 | 2022-01-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.31 | $46.87 | 1.15% | Signal | |
| 2021-08-10 | 2021-11-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.01 | $47.42 | -1.26% | Signal | |
| 2021-05-18 | 2021-11-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-17 | 2021-08-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-14 | 2021-05-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.31 | $46.80 | 1.01% | Signal | |
| 2020-06-30 | 2021-03-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.29 | $47.13 | -0.40% | Signal | |
| 2020-05-29 | 2020-06-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-14 | 2020-05-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.31 | $46.98 | 1.39% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-20 | 2020-04-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-20 | 2020-04-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-20 | 2020-04-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-03-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.24 | $44.93 | -4.95% | Stop | |
| 2019-02-15 | 2020-03-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.30 | $44.93 | 3.71% | Stop | |
| 2018-06-28 | 2020-03-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.01 | $44.93 | 6.88% | Stop | |
| 2019-12-30 | 2020-03-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-12-11 | 2019-12-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.49 | $46.11 | 8.46% | Signal | |
| 2018-12-17 | 2019-02-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.39% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-11-30 | 2018-12-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.28 | $42.52 | 0.50% | Signal | |
| 2018-10-11 | 2018-12-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.38% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-10-15 | 2018-11-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.31% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-08-18 | 2018-10-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.20 | $41.84 | 1.51% | Signal | |
| 2018-05-14 | 2018-10-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.82 | $41.79 | -0.13% | Signal | |
| 2017-11-21 | 2018-06-28 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.98% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-03-22 | 2018-05-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.26% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-05-10 | 2018-03-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.76 | $41.77 | 2.44% | Signal | |
| 2015-05-29 | 2017-11-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.57 | $41.54 | 7.64% | Signal | |
| 2017-02-21 | 2017-08-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.45% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-12-01 | 2017-05-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.28% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-11-19 | 2017-02-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.86 | $40.36 | 3.81% | Signal | |
| 2015-10-13 | 2016-12-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.61 | $40.37 | 4.50% | Signal | |
| 2015-09-25 | 2015-11-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-06-23 | 2015-10-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-05-29 | 2015-09-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.57 | $38.50 | -0.23% | Signal | |
| 2015-05-29 | 2015-06-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.57 | $37.83 | -1.97% | Signal | |
| 2015-05-27 | 2015-05-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-05-27 | 2015-05-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-05-27 | 2015-05-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |