BNDX
Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-15
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for BNDX (Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund ETF) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -5.9% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -16.2%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.3%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 2.0%. The strategy executed 7 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
BNDX Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 1.46% | 2.21% | 1.88% | 0.17% | 2.11% | 1.55% | 2.34% | 2.01% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.45 | 0.62 | 0.60 | 0.03 | 0.69 | 0.38 | 0.78 | 0.50 |
| Max Drawdown | -2.93% | -2.93% | -2.93% | -15.86% | -5.89% | -16.23% | -5.89% | -16.23% |
| % Time Invested | 91.7% | 100.0% | 64.5% | 100.0% | 73.7% | 100.0% | 73.1% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 14 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Premium to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-05-14 | 2026-06-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.31% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-12-07 | 2026-05-14 | Completed | 100% | $43.93 | $47.77 | 8.69% | Signal | |
| 2023-10-12 | 2023-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.84% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-04-12 | 2023-10-12 | Completed | 100% | $42.53 | $42.17 | -0.90% | Signal | |
| 2021-11-02 | 2023-04-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.39% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-08-18 | 2021-11-02 | Completed | 100% | $48.02 | $47.09 | -1.99% | Signal | |
| 2021-03-19 | 2021-08-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-06-05 | 2021-03-19 | Completed | 100% | $46.76 | $47.08 | 0.63% | Signal | |
| 2020-05-05 | 2020-06-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-05-31 | 2020-05-05 | Completed | 100% | $41.04 | $46.74 | 13.85% | Signal | |
| 2016-12-15 | 2017-05-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.31% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-11-10 | 2016-12-15 | Completed | 100% | $38.53 | $40.26 | 4.43% | Signal | |
| 2015-07-01 | 2015-11-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-05-29 | 2015-07-01 | Completed | 100% | $38.57 | $37.99 | -1.57% | Signal | |
| 2015-05-27 | 2015-05-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |